Weekly Digest 7th October 2025

My only UK crypto play and market thoughts

Macro Thoughts

Paul Tudor Jones did an interview yesterday saying the market reminded him of 1999. It’s easy to see the comparisons looking at the Shiller P/E and the circular investments being made by AI linked companies…in each other.

However…I’m still running risk on for now. Hedgeye have pointed out that the amount of put buying (presumably as protection) is 3 times higher than usual. This, along with numerous people calling the market a bubble gives me some comfort – after all, a true bubble has all but the most stubborn of contrarians bought into it.

I am also reassured by valuations outside of the big US tech companies. This is what makes it different to 2008 (another comparison that could be made) as pre-2008 research pieces from companies from GMO would remark on how everything, globally, looked expensive.

I’m finding plenty of cheap stocks.

If I’m wrong and it is 1999 all over again – well value stocks actually did ok from 2001 to 2007. They fell less in the bear market and recovered faster.

One risk factor that I could imagine causing issues, is the bond market. Japan is close to electing a prime minister who has made comments about doing more fiscal policy. If this transpires, then it’s easy to imagine a scenario where inflation in Japan continues to rise and so do bond yields. If Japanese investors react by selling foreign bond holdings to buy their own (given the higher yield on offer), then this could have a knock-on effect for other countries. Given the debt levels and political turmoil in France, perhaps it’s their turn for a Liz Truss moment – although what the ECB would do, is unclear.

One to keep an eye on.

Stock Update

Purecycle Technologies ($PCT) written about here: PCT comments

They spoke at a conference and released the presentation. Notably a Volkswagen bumper was used to demo the ability of PCT to recycle. VW would be a good customer for PCT to sign – instant credibility achieved.

PCT has also been benefiting from its factor exposure in the last week. I suspect that until it hits profitably, it’s going to stay in the Goldman Sachs ‘most shorted’ basket - stocks in this basket have had a good past week as that factor performed well. It’s possible that rumours of the Trump administration consider a $1,000 - $2,000 handout to low-income earners brought back memories of 2021 and hedge funds did a bit of short covering.

Stocks to watch

KR1

This is my only crypto exposure.